Standards Development

Scope

This specification mainly provides a deviation evaluation method for the power forecasting results of renewable energy generation, the evaluation object is the grid -integrated wind farms and solar photovoltaic power plants, and it is also applicable to the evaluation of regional or cluster total power forecasting results. This specification does not involve performance evaluation of forecasting results.

This technical specification mainly includes the following aspects:

—Definitions of renewable energy generation forecasting and deviation evaluation, such as probabilistic forecasting, ramping and ramp forecasts, mixed renewable stations, target groups and applications, metric calculations and choice of metrics etc.

—Use cases and case specific requirements.

—Specification, collection, processing methods, and quality control for evaluation data.

—Evaluation framework and process.

—Evaluation method.

—Normative requirements and examples for evaluation r esult documents.

The service objects of this specification mainly include prediction service providers, wind farm or
photovoltaic power plant owners, TSO, and prediction technology research and development units or
individuals.

Purpose

The variable renewable energy generation such as wind power and photovoltaic power has random fluctuations, and it is necessary to forecast their power output situation at a certain time scale in the future in order to participate in the electricity market or be included in the power generation plan. The prediction deviation directly affects the economic benefits of power generation enterprises and the balance of power system. Countries all over the world have a general demand for the deviation assessment of the forecasting results of renewable energy power generation. Root -mean-square error, mean absolute error, maximum error and other evaluation indicators for the deviation of the forecasting results have been constructed and applied. However, there is a lack of unified evaluation methods in the world, the evaluation results cannot be compared horizontally. At the same time, there is also a lack of normative guidance for scientifically and reasonably applying prediction results based on prediction and evaluation results.

The main purpose of this specification is to provide a method to evalua te the forecasting results of renewable energy generation such as wind power and photovoltaic, and to standardize the methods for collecting and processing data sets and evaluating the deviation of forecasting results, so that the forecasting deviation situation of different countries and prediction service providers can be horizontally compared. More importantly, it guides the scientific and reasonable application of forecasting results.

Based on this specification, the deviation benchmarking of renewable energy generation prediction results can be achieved. For prediction service providers and prediction technology developers, they can discover the gaps or advanced levels of their own prediction technology, and more widely stimulate the vitality of technological innovation competition. For TSO and renewable energy station owners, horizontal benchmarking can provide a way to identify potential high -quality prediction service providers, ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid, or maximize its e conomic benefits. In addition, the evaluation results of prediction deviations provide guidance for scheduling operation decisions or market bidding.